Trump Closes In On 80-Year Polling Record, Our Model Calls It The Most Exciting Race To The Bottom Since Truman

THE STATEHOUSE PRESS ROOM, NEAR THE GOOD OUTLET — Folks, we have a race.

President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 34% in the latest New York Times/Siena poll. In 1946, Harry Truman’s approval hit 33%. That is a one-point margin, with 80 years of American history riding on it, and I have not slept.

The polls are in agreement. CNN/SSRS has the president at 32%. Reuters/Ipsos has him at 31%, which it called a record low. NBC News has 34%. ABC News, The Washington Post and Ipsos have 33%. Fox News has 36%, and I respect Fox News for keeping the suspense alive.

I averaged those six polls in my model this morning. The model returned 33.3%. I then rounded it, which the model does not like, and got 33%. That is Truman’s number. The model is now in what I would describe as a heightened state.

Some readers have written to ask whether a record like this is a good thing for the president. I do not take positions. I take polls. The poll says the record is within one point, and one point is well inside any respectable margin of error. My chart has a little flag on it now.

The record also comes with undercard bouts. According to the same analysis, the president has already passed George W. Bush’s 2006 disapproval levels and his own number from 2018, the year Democrats flipped 41 House seats. Those are two records in the bank before the main event.

My model has called zero elections correctly, which statisticians tell me is its own kind of consistency. It has, however, never been wrong about a chart being exciting. This chart is exciting.

The midterms are in 11 days. I will be updating the chart every hour until then, and twice an hour after the polls close in Alaska, assuming the polls close in Alaska.