Mississippi Senate Race Down to 43 Votes, Which Our Model Rounds Up to a Landslide

JACKSON, Miss. — Democrat Scott Colom led Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by 43 votes early Wednesday. The count stood at 462,821 to 462,778 at 3 a.m., with about 95.6 percent of the vote in, WDBJ7 reported. Independent Ty Pinkins had 19,935.

This reporter’s model has studied those numbers closely. It has called the race. It has called it for Colom, and it has called it for Hyde-Smith, each with total confidence. A model that commits to both outcomes is a model that cannot be wrong, and this desk considers that a breakthrough.

The night, by the numbers

Hyde-Smith led for most of Tuesday night. Shortly after midnight, late returns from Hinds County and from counties in the Delta and southwest Mississippi moved Colom ahead by 28 votes, the Mississippi Free Press reported. By 3 a.m. the lead had grown to 43.

The model classifies that as a surge. The chart for it is a single bar, 43 votes tall, drawn next to a bar that is 925,599 votes tall. The first bar is very hard to see. This reporter has circled it in red.

Counting in Hinds County paused overnight, and thousands of affidavit ballots remain to be counted statewide, the Free Press reported. There is no runoff. In a general election for federal office, Mississippi gives the seat to whoever has the most votes.

The candidates speak

Both candidates addressed supporters as the count tightened. Neither claimed victory.

“We are in a very good lead right now,” Hyde-Smith said, according to WLOX. “We still don’t have all the votes in, so we’re not calling all of it tonight, but we’re in a very good lead.”

The model agrees with the senator. It also agrees with the 43 votes. It has entered both into the record.

“I’m telling you, deep down in my soul, I believe we’re about to show the country Mississippi matters,” Colom said, according to WLOX.

A history lesson

Colom is the district attorney for a four-county district in northeast Mississippi. President Joe Biden nominated him to a federal judgeship in 2022. In 2023, Hyde-Smith blocked the nomination by withholding her blue slip, the Free Press reported.

So the senator kept Colom out of one federal job. As of 3 a.m., he was 43 votes ahead in the race for hers.

If his lead holds, Colom would be the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Mississippi since John C. Stennis in 1982. He would also be the state’s first Black senator since Blanche K. Bruce, who served during Reconstruction.

NBC News puts the shift toward Democrats at nearly 23 points compared with the 2024 presidential race. The model forecast a shift of zero. It has since revised the forecast to 23 points, retroactively, and with confidence.

The margin of error

Every poll has a margin of error. The model’s margin of error for this race is 43 votes. That is also the margin. This desk has never before achieved a margin of error exactly equal to the result, and it intends to frame the chart.

The final answer belongs to the affidavit ballots and the people counting them. The model will have its third call ready the moment they finish.